Chapter 4

Four Scenarios for Virginia

Plausible futures generated by crossing two critical uncertainties: fluency depth and geographic reach.

These scenarios are works of structured fiction, not predictions. They are designed to provoke strategic questions for business leaders and policy makers. Elements of each could emerge. No single scenario will materialize as described.

The two critical uncertainties from this analysis define the scenario space: how far beyond surface-level adoption will businesses progress, and whether the knowledge networks that enable deeper engagement will extend beyond the metro areas where they currently concentrate. Crossing those variables produces four plausible futures for Virginia's SMB economy, each grounded in the economic and geographic dynamics documented in the preceding chapters.

Each scenario is a standalone narrative. Read them in any order. Look for the one that feels most like your market, your community, your business.

Shell's Scenario Planning

Developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the early 1970s by Pierre Wack and Ted Newland. The goal is not prediction but preparation: making strategic decisions that perform well across different outcomes.

Virginia AI Futures is a BuildFirst research project